Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
Biden leading national presidential polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Who’s ahead in national polls?


average voting intention based on individual polls
Date |
BIDEN |
TRUMP |
---|---|---|
Sep 14 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 14 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 13 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 12 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 12 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 11 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 10 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 10 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 09 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 08 | 51 | 43 |
Sep 07 | 49.5 | 42 |
Sep 06 | 49.5 | 42 |
Sep 06 | 49.5 | 42 |
Sep 05 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Sep 04 | 50.5 | 42 |
Sep 04 | 50.5 | 42 |
Sep 03 | 50.5 | 42 |
Sep 02 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Sep 02 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Sep 01 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 31 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 31 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 31 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 31 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 31 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 30 | 50 | 41 |
Aug 30 | 50 | 41 |
Aug 29 | 50.5 | 41.5 |
Aug 28 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Aug 28 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Aug 27 | 50.5 | 42.5 |
Aug 26 | 50 | 43 |
Aug 25 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 25 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 25 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 24 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 23 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 22 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 21 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 20 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 19 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 18 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 18 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 18 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 17 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 16 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 15 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 15 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 14 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 14 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 13 | 50 | 41 |
Aug 12 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 12 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 11 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 11 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 11 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 11 | 50 | 41.5 |
Aug 10 | 49.5 | 41 |
Aug 09 | 49 | 41 |
Aug 08 | 49 | 41 |
Aug 07 | 49 | 41 |
Aug 06 | 49.5 | 41 |
Aug 05 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Aug 04 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 04 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 03 | 50 | 42 |
Aug 02 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Aug 01 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Jul 31 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Jul 30 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Jul 29 | 49 | 41 |
Jul 28 | 49 | 41 |
Jul 28 | 49 | 41 |
Jul 28 | 49 | 41 |
Jul 27 | 50 | 41.5 |
Jul 26 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 25 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 24 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 23 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 22 | 50 | 41 |
Jul 21 | 50 | 41 |
Jul 21 | 50 | 41 |
Jul 20 | 50 | 40.5 |
Jul 19 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 18 | 51 | 41 |
Jul 17 | 50 | 40.5 |
Jul 16 | 50 | 40.5 |
Jul 15 | 50 | 40.5 |
Jul 15 | 50 | 40.5 |
Jul 14 | 50 | 40 |
Jul 14 | 50 | 40 |
Jul 13 | 50.5 | 40 |
Jul 12 | 50.5 | 40 |
Jul 12 | 50.5 | 40 |
Jul 11 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 10 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 09 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 08 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 07 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jul 07 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jul 06 | 49 | 41 |
Jul 05 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 04 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 03 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 02 | 49 | 40 |
Jul 01 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jun 30 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jun 30 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jun 30 | 49.5 | 40.5 |
Jun 29 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 28 | 49 | 41 |
Jun 27 | 49.5 | 40 |
Jun 26 | 49.5 | 40 |
Jun 25 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 24 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 23 | 49.5 | 40 |
Jun 23 | 49.5 | 40 |
Jun 22 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 22 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 21 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 20 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 19 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 18 | 50.5 | 41 |
Jun 17 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 16 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 16 | 50 | 41 |
Jun 15 | 49 | 41 |
Jun 14 | 49.5 | 41.5 |
Jun 13 | 49 | 41 |
Jun 12 | 49 | 41 |
Jun 11 | 49 | 41.5 |
Jun 10 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 09 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 08 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 07 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 06 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 05 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 04 | 48.5 | 42 |
Jun 03 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 03 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 03 | 49 | 42 |
Jun 02 | 48 | 41 |
Jun 02 | 48 | 41 |
Jun 01 | 48 | 42 |
Jun 01 | 48 | 42 |
May 31 | 48 | 41.5 |
May 30 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 29 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 28 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 27 | 48 | 42 |
May 26 | 48 | 42 |
May 25 | 48 | 42 |
May 24 | 48 | 42 |
May 23 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 22 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 21 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 20 | 48 | 42.5 |
May 19 | 48 | 43 |
May 19 | 48 | 43 |
May 18 | 49 | 44 |
May 17 | 49 | 44 |
May 16 | 48.5 | 43.5 |
May 15 | 48.5 | 43.5 |
May 14 | 49 | 43 |
May 14 | 49 | 43 |
May 13 | 48 | 43 |
May 12 | 47 | 43 |
May 11 | 47.5 | 42.5 |
May 10 | 47.5 | 42.5 |
May 09 | 47 | 42 |
May 08 | 47.5 | 42 |
May 07 | 47.5 | 42 |
May 06 | 47.5 | 42 |
May 05 | 48 | 42 |
May 04 | 48 | 42 |
May 03 | 47 | 42 |
May 02 | 47.5 | 41.5 |
May 01 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 30 | 47.5 | 41.5 |
Apr 29 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 28 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 28 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 27 | 48.5 | 42 |
Apr 26 | 48.5 | 42 |
Apr 25 | 48.5 | 42 |
Apr 24 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 23 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 22 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 21 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 20 | 48 | 43 |
Apr 19 | 48.5 | 42.5 |
Apr 18 | 48.5 | 42.5 |
Apr 17 | 48.5 | 42 |
Apr 16 | 48.5 | 42 |
Apr 15 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 14 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 13 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 12 | 47.5 | 42 |
Apr 11 | 47.5 | 42 |
Apr 10 | 47.5 | 42 |
Apr 09 | 47.5 | 42 |
Apr 08 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 07 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 07 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 07 | 48 | 42 |
Apr 06 | 49 | 42 |
Apr 06 | 49 | 42 |
Apr 06 | 49 | 42 |
Apr 05 | 48 | 42.5 |
Apr 04 | 48 | 43 |
Apr 03 | 48 | 43 |
Apr 02 | 48 | 43 |
Apr 01 | 48.5 | 44 |
Mar 31 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 30 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 29 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 28 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 27 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 26 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 25 | 49 | 44 |
Mar 24 | 49 | 43 |
Mar 24 | 49 | 43 |
Mar 23 | 50 | 44 |
Mar 22 | 50 | 44 |
Mar 21 | 52 | 42 |
Mar 20 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 19 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 18 | 52 | 42 |
Mar 17 | 52 | 42 |
Mar 16 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 15 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 14 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 13 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 12 | 52 | 43 |
Mar 11 | 51 | 43 |
Mar 10 | 50 | 43 |
Mar 09 | 51 | 42 |
Mar 08 | 51 | 42 |
Mar 07 | 50 | 43 |
Mar 06 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 05 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 04 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 03 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 02 | 49 | 45 |
Mar 01 | 49.5 | 45 |
Feb 29 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 28 | 50 | 44.5 |
Feb 27 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 26 | 49.5 | 44.5 |
Feb 25 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 24 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 23 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 22 | 50 | 44.5 |
Feb 21 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 20 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 19 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 18 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 17 | 51 | 44 |
Feb 17 | 51 | 44 |
Feb 16 | 50 | 43.5 |
Feb 15 | 50 | 43 |
Feb 14 | 50 | 43 |
Feb 13 | 50 | 43 |
Feb 12 | 49.5 | 45.5 |
Feb 11 | 50 | 44 |
Feb 10 | 49.5 | 43.5 |
Feb 09 | 49.5 | 43.5 |
Feb 08 | 49 | 44 |
Feb 07 | 49 | 44 |
Feb 06 | 49 | 44 |
Feb 05 | 50 | 46 |
Feb 04 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 03 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 02 | 50 | 45 |
Feb 01 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 31 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 30 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 29 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 28 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 27 | 50 | 45 |
Jan 26 | 50 | 45 |
Jan 25 | 50 | 45 |
Jan 24 | 50 | 46 |
Jan 23 | 50 | 46 |
Jan 23 | 50 | 46 |
Jan 22 | 50 | 44 |
Jan 21 | 50.5 | 45 |
Jan 20 | 50.5 | 45 |
Jan 19 | 50.5 | 45 |
Jan 18 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 17 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 16 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 15 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 14 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 13 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 12 | 48 | 46 |
Jan 11 | 48 | 46 |
78 days until Election day
The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.
By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his then-rival Hillary Clinton at several points as election day neared.
Which states will decide this election?
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
Who’s leading in the battleground states?
At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump’s involved.
The polls suggest Mr Biden is ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.
Scroll table to see more data
Arizona | 49.5% | 44.8% | Trump by 3.6% |
---|---|---|---|
Florida | 48.7% | 47.1% | Trump by 1.2% |
Georgia | 45.0% | 46.3% | Trump by 5.2% |
Iowa | 45.0% | 46.7% | Trump by 9.5% |
Michigan | 47.8% | 43.6% | Trump by 0.2% |
Minnesota | 50.3% | 41.5% | Clinton by 1.5% |
Nevada | 46.5% | 40.5% | Clinton by 2.4% |
New Hampshire | 48.0% | 42.5% | Clinton by 0.4% |
North Carolina | 47.8% | 47.1% | Trump by 3.7% |
Ohio | 46.7% | 44.3% | Trump by 8.2% |
Pennsylvania | 49.0% | 44.7% | Trump by 0.7% |
Texas | 43.8% | 47.3% | Trump by 9.1% |
Virginia | 53.0% | 39.0% | Clinton by 5.4% |
Wisconsin | 49.9% | 43.1% | Trump by 0.8% |
Please update your browser to see full interactive
Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 16 September
But it’s the battleground states where Mr Trump won big in 2016 that his campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it’s looking much closer in all three at the moment.
Betting markets, however, are certainly not writing Mr Trump off just yet. The latest odds give him just less than a 50% chance of winning on 3 November, which suggests some people expect the outlook to change a lot over the next few weeks.
But political analysts are less convinced about his chances of re-election. FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, says Mr Biden is “favoured” to win the election, while The Economist says he is “likely” to beat Mr Trump.
Has coronavirus affected Trump’s numbers?
The coronavirus pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year and the response to President Trump’s actions has been split predictably along party lines.
Support for his approach peaked in mid-March after he declared a national emergency and made $50 billion available to states to stop the spread of the virus. At this point, 55% of Americans approved of his actions, according to data from Ipsos, a leading polling company.
But any support he had from Democrats disappeared after that, while Republicans continued to back their president.
By July, the data suggests his own supporters had begun to question his response – but there was a slight uptick in August and September.
The virus is likely to be at the forefront of voters’ minds and one leading model produced by experts at the University of Washington predicts the death toll will have risen to about 260,000 people by election day.
Mr Trump may be hoping Operation Warp Speed, his administration’s vaccine initiative, can produce an “October surprise” – a last-minute event that turns the election upside down.
The chief scientific adviser to the initiative has said it’s “extremely unlikely but not impossible” that a vaccine could be ready to distribute before 3 November.
Can we trust the polls?
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism, especially this far out from election day.
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