US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead – Trump or Biden?

Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Who’s ahead in national polls?

average voting intention based on individual polls

Skip chart

Date	BIDEN	TRUMP
Sep 14	51	43
Sep 14	51	43
Sep 13	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep 11	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 09	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 07	49.5	42
Sep 06	49.5	42
Sep 06	49.5	42
Sep 05	50.5	42.5
Sep 04	50.5	42
Sep 04	50.5	42
Sep 03	50.5	42
Sep 02	50.5	42.5
Sep 02	50.5	42.5
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 30	50	41
Aug 30	50	41
Aug 29	50.5	41.5
Aug 28	50.5	42.5
Aug 28	50.5	42.5
Aug 27	50.5	42.5
Aug 26	50	43
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 24	50	42
Aug 23	50	42
Aug 22	50	42
Aug 21	50	42
Aug 20	50	42
Aug 19	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 17	50	42
Aug 16	50	42
Aug 15	50	42
Aug 15	50	42
Aug 14	50	41.5
Aug 14	50	41.5
Aug 13	50	41
Aug 12	50	41.5
Aug 12	50	41.5
Aug 11	50	41.5
Aug 11	50	41.5
Aug 11	50	41.5
Aug 11	50	41.5
Aug 10	49.5	41
Aug 09	49	41
Aug 08	49	41
Aug 07	49	41
Aug 06	49.5	41
Aug 05	49.5	41.5
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 03	50	42
Aug 02	49.5	41.5
Aug 01	49.5	41.5
Jul 31	49.5	41.5
Jul 30	49.5	41.5
Jul 29	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 27	50	41.5
Jul 26	51	41
Jul 25	51	41
Jul 24	51	41
Jul 23	51	41
Jul 22	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 20	50	40.5
Jul 19	51	41
Jul 18	51	41
Jul 17	50	40.5
Jul 16	50	40.5
Jul 15	50	40.5
Jul 15	50	40.5
Jul 14	50	40
Jul 14	50	40
Jul 13	50.5	40
Jul 12	50.5	40
Jul 12	50.5	40
Jul 11	49	40
Jul 10	49	40
Jul 09	49	40
Jul 08	49	40
Jul 07	49.5	40.5
Jul 07	49.5	40.5
Jul 06	49	41
Jul 05	49	40
Jul 04	49	40
Jul 03	49	40
Jul 02	49	40
Jul 01	49.5	40.5
Jun 30	49.5	40.5
Jun 30	49.5	40.5
Jun 30	49.5	40.5
Jun 29	50	41
Jun 28	49	41
Jun 27	49.5	40
Jun 26	49.5	40
Jun 25	50	41
Jun 24	50	41
Jun 23	49.5	40
Jun 23	49.5	40
Jun 22	50	41
Jun 22	50	41
Jun 21	50	41
Jun 20	50	41
Jun 19	50	41
Jun 18	50.5	41
Jun 17	50	41
Jun 16	50	41
Jun 16	50	41
Jun 15	49	41
Jun 14	49.5	41.5
Jun 13	49	41
Jun 12	49	41
Jun 11	49	41.5
Jun 10	49	42
Jun 09	49	42
Jun 08	49	42
Jun 07	49	42
Jun 06	49	42
Jun 05	49	42
Jun 04	48.5	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 01	48	42
Jun 01	48	42
May 31	48	41.5
May 30	48	42.5
May 29	48	42.5
May 28	48	42.5
May 27	48	42
May 26	48	42
May 25	48	42
May 24	48	42
May 23	48	42.5
May 22	48	42.5
May 21	48	42.5
May 20	48	42.5
May 19	48	43
May 19	48	43
May 18	49	44
May 17	49	44
May 16	48.5	43.5
May 15	48.5	43.5
May 14	49	43
May 14	49	43
May 13	48	43
May 12	47	43
May 11	47.5	42.5
May 10	47.5	42.5
May 09	47	42
May 08	47.5	42
May 07	47.5	42
May 06	47.5	42
May 05	48	42
May 04	48	42
May 03	47	42
May 02	47.5	41.5
May 01	48	42
Apr 30	47.5	41.5
Apr 29	48	42
Apr 28	48	42
Apr 28	48	42
Apr 27	48.5	42
Apr 26	48.5	42
Apr 25	48.5	42
Apr 24	48	42
Apr 23	48	42
Apr 22	48	42
Apr 21	48	42
Apr 20	48	43
Apr 19	48.5	42.5
Apr 18	48.5	42.5
Apr 17	48.5	42
Apr 16	48.5	42
Apr 15	48	42
Apr 14	48	42
Apr 13	48	42
Apr 12	47.5	42
Apr 11	47.5	42
Apr 10	47.5	42
Apr 09	47.5	42
Apr 08	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 05	48	42.5
Apr 04	48	43
Apr 03	48	43
Apr 02	48	43
Apr 01	48.5	44
Mar 31	49	45
Mar 30	49	45
Mar 29	49	45
Mar 28	49	45
Mar 27	49	45
Mar 26	49	45
Mar 25	49	44
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 23	50	44
Mar 22	50	44
Mar 21	52	42
Mar 20	52	43
Mar 19	52	43
Mar 18	52	42
Mar 17	52	42
Mar 16	52	43
Mar 15	52	43
Mar 14	52	43
Mar 13	52	43
Mar 12	52	43
Mar 11	51	43
Mar 10	50	43
Mar 09	51	42
Mar 08	51	42
Mar 07	50	43
Mar 06	49	45
Mar 05	49	45
Mar 04	49	45
Mar 03	49	45
Mar 02	49	45
Mar 01	49.5	45
Feb 29	50	45
Feb 28	50	44.5
Feb 27	50	44
Feb 26	49.5	44.5
Feb 25	50	45
Feb 24	50	45
Feb 23	50	45
Feb 22	50	44.5
Feb 21	50	44
Feb 20	50	44
Feb 19	50	44
Feb 18	50	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 16	50	43.5
Feb 15	50	43
Feb 14	50	43
Feb 13	50	43
Feb 12	49.5	45.5
Feb 11	50	44
Feb 10	49.5	43.5
Feb 09	49.5	43.5
Feb 08	49	44
Feb 07	49	44
Feb 06	49	44
Feb 05	50	46
Feb 04	50	45
Feb 03	50	45
Feb 02	50	45
Feb 01	50	44
Jan 31	50	44
Jan 30	50	44
Jan 29	50	44
Jan 28	50	44
Jan 27	50	45
Jan 26	50	45
Jan 25	50	45
Jan 24	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 22	50	44
Jan 21	50.5	45
Jan 20	50.5	45
Jan 19	50.5	45
Jan 18	48	46
Jan 17	48	46
Jan 16	48	46
Jan 15	48	46
Jan 14	48	46
Jan 13	48	46
Jan 12	48	46
Jan 11	48	46

78 days until Election day

The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.

See individual polls

By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his then-rival Hillary Clinton at several points as election day neared.

• A really simple guide to the US election

Which states will decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

• What is the electoral college?

Who’s leading in the battleground states?

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump’s involved.

The polls suggest Mr Biden is ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.

But it’s the battleground states where Mr Trump won big in 2016 that his campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it’s looking much closer in all three at the moment.

Betting markets, however, are certainly not writing Mr Trump off just yet. The latest odds give him just less than a 50% chance of winning on 3 November, which suggests some people expect the outlook to change a lot over the next few weeks.

But political analysts are less convinced about his chances of re-election. FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, says Mr Biden is “favoured” to win the election, while The Economist says he is “likely” to beat Mr Trump.

• Has Trump delivered on his promises?

Has coronavirus affected Trump’s numbers?

The coronavirus pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year and the response to President Trump’s actions has been split predictably along party lines.

Support for his approach peaked in mid-March after he declared a national emergency and made $50 billion available to states to stop the spread of the virus. At this point, 55% of Americans approved of his actions, according to data from Ipsos, a leading polling company.

But any support he had from Democrats disappeared after that, while Republicans continued to back their president.

By July, the data suggests his own supporters had begun to question his response – but there was a slight uptick in August and September.

The virus is likely to be at the forefront of voters’ minds and one leading model produced by experts at the University of Washington predicts the death toll will have risen to about 260,000 people by election day.

Mr Trump may be hoping Operation Warp Speed, his administration’s vaccine initiative, can produce an “October surprise” – a last-minute event that turns the election upside down.

The chief scientific adviser to the initiative has said it’s “extremely unlikely but not impossible” that a vaccine could be ready to distribute before 3 November.

• Trump deliberately played down virus, new book says

Can we trust the polls?

It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism, especially this far out from election day.

• Americast: The latest news and gossip from the campaign trail